Newcastle United and Brentford meet in a pivotal Premier League tie on Saturday, 7 February 2026 at 5:30pm (UK). Find predictions, stats and betting tips for this top-flight fixture below in our comprehensive match preview.
Fixture Details
Home Team: Newcastle United
Away Team: Brentford
Competition: Premier League
Matchday: 25
Date: Saturday, 7 February 2026
Kick-off Time: 17:30 (UK)
Venue: St. James’ Park, Newcastle
Match Overview
Match Details
Information
Competition
Premier League
Matchday
25
Date
Saturday, 7 February 2026
Kick-off Time
17:30 (UK)
Venue
St. James’ Park, Newcastle
Broadcast
Check local listings / Premier League Live
Key Predictions & Confidence Score
Market
Prediction
Confidence
Full-Time Result
Draw (5/2 – Bet365)
★★★☆☆
Correct Score
1-1 (13/2 – Bet365)
★★★☆☆
Both Teams to Score
Yes (8/13 – Bet365)
★★★★☆
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5
★★★☆☆
Top Betting Tips & Value Analysis
Tip 1. Value Bet: Draw (Full-Time Result)
Odds: @ 5/2 with Bet365
Value Rating: ★★★★☆
Analysis: Newcastle and Brentford are closely matched in both recent form and underlying statistics this season. Newcastle have drawn 6 of their 24 league matches (25%), while Brentford have shared the spoils in 3. Newcastle’s 33 goals scored from 307 shots (10.7% conversion) suggests some attacking underperformance, whereas Brentford’s 36 goals from 247 shots (14.6% conversion) highlights their clinical edge. However, Newcastle’s home advantage is offset by Brentford’s strong counter-attacking threat (9 goals from fast breaks, the joint-most in the league). Historically, there has only been a single draw in the last 11 meetings, but with both sides evenly matched and a tendency to concede (33 and 32 goals conceded respectively), a stalemate offers solid value at 5/2.
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Tip 2. Player Prop Bet: Igor Thiago to Score Anytime
Odds: @ 10/11 with BetTom
Value Rating: ★★★★☆
Analysis: Brentford’s Igor Thiago is one of the league’s most in-form strikers, netting 16 goals in 24 appearances this season, including 4 from fast breaks. His shot accuracy stands at 50%, meaning one in every two efforts is on target. Newcastle’s defence, while generally solid at home, has conceded 33 goals this season, and their tendency to push forward may leave gaps for Brentford’s main striker to exploit. Thiago’s pace and movement make him a persistent threat, especially if Brentford get opportunities on the counter. If your bookmaker offers anytime scorer prices of 2/1 or better, this is a value proposition to consider.
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In-Depth Match Analysis
Recent Form and Performance
Newcastle United: Currently sit 11th in the Premier League with 33 points from 24 matches (9W, 6D, 9L), scoring 33 and conceding 33. Their form has been inconsistent, with a tendency to drop points both home and away. Newcastle average 53.4% possession and 83.8% pass accuracy, indicating a style focused on ball retention and structured build-up. However, their actual goal return is almost 4 below their expected goals (xG 37.3), hinting at inefficiency or bad luck in front of goal.
Brentford: Occupy 7th place with 36 points (11W, 3D, 10L), having scored 36 and conceded 32. Brentford are outperforming their xG (30.8) by more than 5 goals, a testament to the finishing prowess of their front men, particularly Igor Thiago. They play a more reactive style, with just 46.6% average possession, but are deadly on the counter, leading the league for fast-break goals (9). Their pass accuracy is lower at 79.7%, reflecting a more direct approach.
Tactical Breakdown
Newcastle under Eddie Howe favour a proactive system, often lining up in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 and seeking to control territory through high possession and width. Their use of overlapping full-backs and a midfield anchor allows them to build from the back, but leaves them vulnerable to quick transitions if possession is lost.
Brentford, under Keith Andrews, embrace a counter-attacking and transitional style. Typically deploying a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, they sit deeper and look to spring forward quickly when possession is turned over. The pace of their forwards, especially Igor Thiago, and the creative support from midfielders like Mathias Jensen create a constant threat on the break. Brentford’s 9 goals from fast breaks (compared to Newcastle’s 2) underline the effectiveness of this approach.
Key Player Matchups
Kieran Trippier (Newcastle) vs. Igor Thiago (Brentford): Trippier’s attacking raids from right-back will need to be balanced with defensive discipline to contain Brentford’s star striker. If Trippier leaves space in behind, expect Thiago to target that channel on the counter.
Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle) vs. Vitaly Janelt (Brentford): In midfield, Guimarães’ ability to dictate tempo and break lines with passing will be contested by Janelt’s pressing and ball-winning. This duel could decide which team is able to assert its preferred rhythm.
Head-to-Head Record & Statistical Analysis
Statistic
Newcastle United
Brentford
League Position
11th
7th
Goals Scored
33
36
Goals Conceded
33
32
xG (Expected Goals)
37.34
30.79
xGA (Expected Goals Against)
—
—
Last 5 Meetings
Date
Result
Competition
09/11/2025
Brentford 1-3 Newcastle United
Premier League
02/04/2025
Newcastle United 2-1 Brentford
Premier League
18/12/2024
Newcastle United 3-1 Brentford
League Cup
07/12/2024
Brentford 4-2 Newcastle United
Premier League
19/05/2024
Brentford 2-4 Newcastle United
Premier League
Player Spotlight: Igor Thiago
Igor Thiago Nascimento Rodrigues has been Brentford’s talisman this season, scoring 16 goals in 24 league appearances and emerging as one of the most prolific finishers in the division. His shot accuracy stands at an impressive 50%, meaning half of his efforts test the opposition goalkeeper. Notably, Thiago is lethal on the counter, with a league-high 4 goals from fast breaks and 11 of his strikes coming on the break. His movement and anticipation in the final third have been central to Brentford outperforming their xG by over 5 goals. If Newcastle’s defence is caught high up the pitch, Thiago is primed to exploit any lapses, making him a key player to watch at St. James’ Park.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Who is the favourite to win the Newcastle United vs. Brentford match?
Bookmakers slightly favour Newcastle United at home, but the odds suggest this is a close contest and a draw is a strong possibility.
What are the best betting odds for this match?
The draw is priced at 5/2 with Bet365, 1-1 correct score is 13/2 with Bet365, and both teams to score ‘Yes’ is 8/13 (Bet365). For anytime scorer and other prop markets, check the latest prices at leading sports betting sites.
Where can I watch the Newcastle United vs. Brentford match?
The match will be available on Premier League Live – check local listings for full broadcast details.
Conclusion & Key Takeaways
This Premier League clash at St. James’ Park promises to be tightly contested. Newcastle’s ball-dominant style will be tested by Brentford’s clinical counter-attacking approach. Both teams have shown attacking quality but also defensive vulnerabilities, making goals likely at both ends. The value is with the draw (5/2), while Igor Thiago remains a potent threat for the visitors. For more betting tips and enhanced odds, see our guides on Premier League winner odds and the best paypal betting sites for secure deposits.
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