Friday’s clash is the most-winnable Premier League game on paper for the rest of February, and we’re only at the start of it
Isaac Johnson Leeds United reporter
07:30, 04 Feb 2026
It is important Karl Darlow has a strong game(Image: Zach Forster/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Ahead of November’s reverse fixture at Nottingham Forest, 10 games into the season, Daniel Farke signalled annoyance at being repeatedly asked in press conferences whether said upcoming game was ‘must-win’.
“I’ve been asked this almost 7 times now – same answer: Each and every game is an opportunity for a newly promoted side,” he responded. “We want to achieve at least nine wins, a point average of one per game. Each and every game is an opportunity to win.”
At that point, Leeds United had won three matches but the subsequent dismal 3-1 defeat at the City Ground would mark four defeats in five entering the international break. Since that point, United’s performances have done a U-turn, yet the club have still only registered a further three wins in the 13 games that followed.
Now, context is key, of course. Defeats to Aston Villa and Manchester City were narrow, one win came against Chelsea – who were considered title challengers at the time – and draws against Liverpool both home and away were great results.
Points on the road against Brentford, Sunderland, Liverpool and Everton were only interjected by a very unlucky 4-3 defeat at Newcastle United. Saturday’s 4-0 blowaway by title favourites Arsenal was the first home defeat since November.
Yet for all their good work, a loss to Forest on Friday coupled with a West Ham win over Burnley a day later would leave Leeds just three points ahead of the bottom three.
Few have moaned about the draws earned but this picture shows why each win is so valuable to a newly-promoted team. It is also why Friday’s meeting with Forest is undoubtedly a must-win if Leeds are to show they can stay in the division.
Leeds have not lost successive home league games since April 2024, amid the end-of-season collapse in Farke’s first season. United have lost only four of 35 league games at Elland Road since then.
The reason for so much of that is the unapologetic home support. Even at 4-0 down against Arsenal, fans were singing their side on.
Leeds United fans at Elland Road(Image: Getty Images)
There’s no questioning why Farke calls the ground a “fortress” and chairman Paraag Marathe describes it as “a crucible”. The atmosphere hits fever pitch under the lights during a night game – and that is what Forest have to walk into.
Yet there will be a touch of angst, and not only due to the context of the Premier League table. Many are unsure whether the call to bring in just one loan signing this winter is enough.
Their opponents brought in a new goalkeeper and a fresh left-back in the final days of the window – two areas that Whites fans would have liked to see their team bolster themselves.
Blame PSR, blame the board, blame whomever and whatever, but the decision to more-or-less stick rather than twist means a win on Friday is important for which direction the post-window mood heads in.
A defeat would inevitably lead to a spiral of pessimism, given that Chelsea, Aston Villa and Manchester City lie in wait on the other side. A win would give confidence that everything might just be all right.
Leeds would go nine points clear of the drop zone, at least initially, and we all can remember what happened when a series of fixtures against big boys was lined up in December, the away trip to Man City proving a sliding doors moment.
There are natural concerns about back-up strength in attack and at left-back, should Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Gabriel Gudmundsson be ruled out injured for a period of time. But the most pressing focus will be on the goalkeeper, given Karl Darlow’s fumbles against Arsenal.
It appears Farke wanted a new shot-stopper in January, ideally, and with Lucas Perri dropped, questions loom over whether Leeds have got what is required in nets. That is the first test of United’s January transfer window call to not dip into the market for one.
Their overall January policy will be scrutinised for the final 14 games of the Premier League season and the only vindication will be the final league table.
To ensure they are on the right side of the line, they must beat their relegation rivals from now on, regardless of their own transfer activity. So, indeed, Friday’s game is a must-win.
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