I've been doing some analysis of what the permutations are for the final day of the Champions League, mainly for my own interest and thought I'd share here. All my own calculations so please shout if you think something is wrong.
TLDR – We can't finish lower than 15th so will be seeded in playoff draw, a win will almost certainly guarantee top 8.
Reminder of what each position gets:
- Top 8 gets direct qualification to the round of 16, bypassing the play-offs. They will also be seeded in the R16, playing their 2nd leg at home.
- 9th-16th gets a seeded place in the playoffs (second leg at home)
- 17th-24th gets an unseeded place in the playoffs (second leg away)
You can see the current table here
We are currently 7th, the 2nd of a whopping 8 teams on 13 points, thanks to our goal difference of +10, behind PSG only on goals scored. A win against PSG would all but guarantee our place in the top 8, barring some freakish goal difference wins for 3 of the teams below us.
Talking of the teams below us, let's look at the fixtures for the other teams on 13 points (in bold)
PSG vs Newcastle
Napoli v Chelsea
Barcelona v Copenhagen
Athletic Club v Sporting
Manchester City v Galatasaray
Atletico Madrid v Bodo/Glimt
Union Saint-Gilloise v Atalanta
If we fail to win, a win for any of these sides will put them above us in the table. Barca, City and Atletico all have fairly kind looking home games and you would expect them to win, meaning if we draw or lose we will be very unlikely to get top 8. If all of them won and we don't then that moves us down to 13th.
Next we look at the fixtures for teams on 12 & 11 points;
Borussia Dortmund v Inter Milan
Monaco v Juventus
Inter, Juventus and Dortmund could all also climb above us with a win if we fail to win, however Inter play Dortmund so only 2 of the 3 could get above us. That puts our floor at 15th, if we lose and all the teams below us win.
Looking further below that you have Galatasaray & Qarabag on 10 points, but with a vastly inferior goal difference, Galatasaray play City away who are also below us so that doesn't change our floor of 15th as both can't win. Qarabag visit Liverpool who are above us, but they'd need to overturn a goal difference of 12, which for all intents and purposes is impossible, hence we are guaranteed top 15.
PSG are facing the same permutations, with a draw likely putting both of us out of top 8 contention. So it should be pretty interesting if we are tied late in the match, you'd expect both teams to be going all out for the win.
Personally I think we will fall just short, I doubt all of the teams below us will win, but most probably will, I think we will finish 12-14th. Let me know your thoughts.
by KingPing43