We look ahead to
Tuesday’s top-of-the-table Premier
League clash with our Arsenal vs Aston Villa prediction and
preview. How will this result affect the title
race?
Arsenal
vs Aston Villa: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer pegs Arsenal as heavy favourites to
claim victory over Aston Villa, with the Gunners winning 59.7% of
the pre-match simulations.
Arsenal have won their final league game in four of the last
five calendar years, with the sole exception being a 2-1 defeat at
Fulham on New Year’s Eve in 2023.
Aston Villa have picked up 11 straight victories across
competitions, matching their all-time club record last set in March
1914.
The Premier League title race has largely been a two-horse
affair in recent seasons. Arsenal
have featured regularly but have fallen short on each occasion over
the past three seasons to either Manchester City or Liverpool.
This season, however, it seems we may have a three-horse race on
our hands as surprise package Aston
Villa have surged into third place, joining current favourites
City and Arsenal at the summit.
Unai Emery’s side trail the Gunners by just three points ahead
of Tuesday’s mammoth clash, following their
incredible 2-1 comeback win over Chelsea on Saturday.
Ollie
Watkins came off the bench and turned the game on its head,
scoring twice in the second half to carry
Villa to their 11th consecutive victory across all
competitions, equalling their all-time club record set in
September 1897 and March 1914.
In the Premier League, they have won eight straight matches for
the first time, and the first time in their top-flight history
since a run of nine victories between October and December
1910.
This underlines a remarkable turnaround for the Villans. At the
end of matchday five, they were 18th in the Premier League without
a single win (D3 L2), having managed just one goal from their
opening five fixtures.
But it’s been a completely different story from matchday six
onwards. Emery’s side have collected more wins (12) and more points
(36) than any other Premier League team in that span, announcing
themselves as key contenders for the Premier League crown.
But they have a tough test in front of them in the form of
leaders Arsenal, who maintained their narrow lead at the summit
with a nervy 2-1 win over Brighton & Hove Albion earlier on
Saturday.
The win, decided by an own-goal from Georginio Rutter, means
that Mikel Arteta’s side have now won six consecutive Premier
League home matches, marking their longest run since winning 10
between April and December 2022.
But it also exposed a familiar problem for the Gunners, who have
created chances in abundance across their recent outings, but have
often failed to find the finishing touch in front of goal.
Their win over Brighton followed a similar pattern to their
narrow 2-1 victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers earlier in
December, where two own-goals proved decisive. In fact, no side has
benefited from more own goals in the Premier League this season
than Arsenal (three).
Emi Buendía scored a dramatic 95th-minute winner in the reverse
fixture on 6 December to end Arsenal’s three-month unbeaten run
(with eight wins from a possible 11 in the league) but they have
since bounced back, although not entirely convincingly.
Either side of their own-goal-assisted wins over Wolves and
Brighton, they edged past Everton 1-0, extending a run that will
certainly please Arteta, who will want his side to settle the score
against Villa after missing out on that vital point recently.
Arsenal were handed a recent boost with
Gabriel Magalhães returning from the bench in the Brighton
game, though fresh concerns have emerged as Riccardo Calafiori and
Jurriën Timber both missed the game with knocks.
Villa, meanwhile, have benefited from a largely settled squad,
though Emery will notably be without the suspended Matty
Cash and Boubacar
Kamara for Tuesday’s trip to north London.
This match will mark Emery’s third away Premier League visit to
the Emirates since leaving Arsenal. He has won once and drawn once
there with Villa, and no former Gunners manager has ever gone three
consecutive away league games at the stadium without defeat after
departing the club.
The form player for Villa will certainly be Watkins, especially
after his scintillating display against Chelsea. He has scored four
goals in five away league appearances against Arsenal, the most by
any Villa player at the Emirates.
For Arsenal, meanwhile, Arteta would be wise to involve Eberechi
Eze from the get-go. The midfielder has played a part in five
goals in four home league starts against Villa (two goals, three
assists), all for former club Crystal Palace between May 2021 and
February 2025.
Arsenal
vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head
Aston Villa will arrive at the Emirates full of confidence
following their last-gasp win at Villa Park earlier this month.
The Gunners have lost three of their last five Premier League
matches against Villa (W1 D1) and could see Villa complete the
league double over them for the third time in six seasons (also in
2020-21 and 2023-24). Emery’s side are already halfway there thanks
to Buendía’s stoppage-time winner in the reverse fixture.
It bodes well for Villa that they are unbeaten in their last two
away league matches at the Emirates, winning 2-0 in April 2024 and
drawing 2-2 in January last season. Their last longer undefeated
run against Arsenal was a three-match streak between 2006-07 and
2008-09.
Arsenal
vs Aston Villa Prediction
Although they have required some fortunate own goals to see them
over the line in a string of narrow victories, Arsenal have still
been creating quality chances and walk into this match as
favourites according to the Opta supercomputer.
The Gunners took three points in 59.7% of the 10,000 pre-match
simulations. Aston Villa prevailed 19.2% of the time, with a draw
emerging as the outcome in 21.1% of the simulations.
Arsenal vs Aston Villa Predicted
Lineups
Arsenal: David Raya, Jurriën Timber,
William Saliba, Piero Hincapié, Riccardo Calafiori, Martin
Ødegaard, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Viktor
Gyökeres, Leandro Trossard.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta
Aston Villa: Emiliano Martínez, Lamare
Bogarde, Ezri Konsa, Victor Lindelöf, Ian Maatsen, Amadou Onana,
Youri Tielemans, John McGinn, Emiliano Buendía, Morgan Rogers,
Ollie Watkins.
Head coach: Unai Emery
Opta
Power Rankings
The
Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They
assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams.
This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the
worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the
world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking
for both sides.
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