Monday’s action at the
FIFA Club
World Cup delivered two major upsets, as European heavyweights
Manchester City and Inter were knocked out in the last-16 by
Al-Hilal and Fluminense. We analyse a day where two teams proved
that European club football doesn’t always reign
supreme.
Monday saw two of Europe’s biggest club sides humbled in the
heat.
Both Manchester
City and Internazionale
came into the knockout stage of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup having
won their respective groups, while City were the only team to have
a 100% winning record in the competition.
Ahead of the knockout stages, the Opta supercomputer was
positive about both their chances of success this summer in the
United States, too. Only Paris
Saint-Germain (20.6%) were given a
higher chance of winning the 2025 Club World Cup of the
remaining 16 sides than City (20.4%) and Inter (12.4%).
But everything changed on Monday. Al-Hilal and Fluminense
stunned their more illustrious opponents, sending both European
clubs home and reshaping the tournament.
Ahead of their game against Fluminense in Charlotte, Inter were
deemed the seventh strongest men’s football team in world football
by the
Opta Power Rankings, while their Brazilian opponents were down
in 181st, making them the lowest-ranked club to participate in the
knockout stage of the competition.
That ranking was quickly thrown out following an inspired
display from the Brazilian side, as Fluminense sealed a third
victory for Brazilian clubs against European opposition at the FIFA
Club World Cup – one more than they’ve lost (2).
Fluminense’s 2-0 win extended their unbeaten run in all
competitions to 10 matches (W7 D3), with the team keeping clean
sheets in five of their last six games.
Their latest shutout was built on outstanding performances from
two veterans: 40-year-old captain Thiago Silva and goalkeeper
Fábio, who, aged 44 years and 273 days, is the oldest player at the
tournament. Thiago Silva is second on that list. Fábio is over a
year older than Real Madrid head coach Xabi Alonso but still
managed to keep out all four of Inter’s shots on target across the
90 minutes, including an outstanding close-range save from Lautaro
Martínez with the score at 1-0.
Perhaps overlooked ahead of the tournament was the timing
advantage for Brazilian clubs. With just 12 matchdays of their
38-game Serie A season completed, Brazilian sides arrived at this
competition fresh, unlike many European clubs coming off long,
gruelling campaigns. That freshness has been evident in their
performances so far.
Fluminense will now face Al-Hilal in the quarter-final after the
Saudi Pro League side’s thrilling 4-3 extra-time win over
Manchester City – arguably the game of the tournament so far.
These numbers are admittedly skewed by the additional 30 minutes
of extra-time, but this match saw the most shots (47), shots on
target (20) and highest xG total (7.37) of any game at the 2025
Club World Cup so far, while it was also the first to see the
cumulative total of touches in the opposition box reach 100.
Al-Hilal’s 3.16 xG was the third-highest non-penalty xG given up
by Man City on record under Pep Guardiola, with only Real Madrid’s
3.30 in February 2025 higher across the last five years.
All 17 of their shots came from inside the Man City penalty box,
too. In only one previous competitive match under Guardiola had
City allowed their opponents at least 17 shots inside their box –
that came in January against PSG (20) in their 4-2 capitulation in
the Champions League in Paris.
The result ended Guardiola’s exceptional run in the competition.
The Spaniard came into the match with a 100% record at the Club
World Cup (W11 D0 L0, including previous formats) as a coach,
outscoring opponents 38-4 in those matches, including 13-2 in this
year’s group stage. His sides had won 10 of those 11 matches by a
margin of at least two goals.
Although the disparity between these two clubs wasn’t as stark
as Fluminense and Inter in the Opta Power Rankings, there was still
a gap of 66 places (4th vs 70th) on the morning of the match.
Based on the Opta supercomputer pre-match projections, these two
results were also among the most unlikely at the tournament so
far.
Auckland City’s sensational 1-1 draw with Boca Juniors in the
group stage was a result that was modelled just 5.4% of the time
before kick-off and will almost certainly remain the most unlikely
result to occur at this tournament.
Botafogo’s 1-0 win over PSG in the group stage was the most
unlikely victory according to the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match
projections, with the Brazilian team only winning that game in 6.4%
of the 10,000 simulations ahead of kick-off.
Fluminense’s win last night is third in the ranking for the most
unlikely result at this tournament. They only defeated Inter in
7.5% of the pre-match simulations by the supercomputer, while
Al-Hilal’s 9.9%-win projection before kick-off against Man City is
the fourth biggest shock of the 2025 Club World Cup so far, though
they did also require extra-time.
We might yet have another upset in the round of 16, too. Liga MX
side Monterrey face Bundesliga club Borussia
Dortmund in Atlanta in the last match of the round later
today.
Ahead of kick-off, the Mexican club are 112 places below
Dortmund in the Opta Power Rankings, while the latest match
projections see Monterrey progress to the quarter-finals just 25.1%
of the time. It’s even lower when considering the result inside 90
minutes only, with Monterrey winning the match without needing
extra-time or penalties in just 16.2% of simulations.
The exits of both Man City and Inter have opened up that half of
the
Club World Cup knockout bracket, and the main beneficiaries are
Chelsea.
They are currently projected to reach the final in 58.0% of the
10,000 tournament simulations – up from 21.2% on the eve of the
last 16.
That half of the draw places them with Fluminense, Al-Hilal and
Palmeiras, but as the tournament has shown so far, underestimate
these teams at your peril.
Subscribe to
our football
newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should
also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.